• 0 Posts
  • 36 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 10th, 2023

help-circle

  • It’s not manufactured scarcity, it’s just scarcity that the market can’t (or won’t risk) reacting to quickly.

    It costs hundreds of billions and multiple years to build out the capacity to make these chips at scale, and decades to earn back that investment on each plant. If the companies think it’s going to be a short term thing, they won’t build enough new plants because that would risk being over-supplied and not being able to recoup the investment. If they think it’s going to be a long term thing, they will start building. They are clearly building some new capacity, so they must think it’s not entirely a short term thing. However, they won’t build as much as possible, because that risks oversupplying if too much gets built and the demand shifts.

    LLMs could shift to an entirely new tech that doesn’t rely on these chips in 5 years, and then they’d be fucked.

    All it takes is one crazy ass dude or dudette to build out a more efficient biological processor or something and then we’re all going to be growing AI brains in jars to do our work for us.


















  • The simple answer is that the government teams who assess them can’t know the exact market value unless the home they’re assessing sells on the date that their assessment is meant to be for. There’s no other way to obtain the market value other than selling the actual house.

    What someone lists a home for is not the market value, what someone bought the home for 6 months ago is not the market value, and about a hundred other things from renos to rezoning to even a murder can change the market value of a property overnight.

    So these teams use a “good enough” approach which statistically analyze based on property size, location, age, known building information, etc. and then combine this with historical sales data to try to get a decent number so that property taxes can be applied reasonably fairly.