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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: October 12th, 2024

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  • But we aren’t on a path that leads there, currently. Not with LLM.

    To be clear: Yes, 100%, anyone talking about AGI in the current context is just as deranged as that guy talking about building a dyson sphere within the next 80 years. It’s just not going to happen.

    I just don’t want people throwing the baby out with the bathwater and assuming that AGI is impossible just because the current grifters correctly state that AGI is possible.


  • Superhuman AI is obviously possible - humans are possible, but obviously aren’t remotely optimal. We e.g. can’t at all visualize/intuit 4D space, despite handling 3D space just fine. There are so, so many things that computers already beat the best humans at, even just creating a digital analogue to the human brain design and essentially refactoring it so it’s not hardwired around human physical limits (the wattage, in particular) would make it better than every human. Or, figuring out what was so special about Einstein and reproducing it. Or just being able to run a physicist’s brain on a GPU, then getting 1 000 000 GPUs and creating the world’s largest para-university of physics.



  • Okay, hot take: people care about gas prices because it’s how most people are exposed to politics. No matter how wilfully ignorant you are, you can’t not notice gas prices spiking. Most of the rest of politics is opaque unless you’re tuned in.

    So why does that matter? Because it means everyone (with a car) knows there’s another war in the middle east. So anyone who thought Iraq was bullshit and voted for Trump because he promised “no more wars” is painfully aware that he lied now.





  • Does the head dong thing get sunburned? Does it convey a lot of heat?

    The point of a hat is to 1) keep sun out of eyes, and 2) keep the head cool by blocking the thermal radiation that is sunlight.

    So, picture 2 fails at both of those. Picture 1 is fine if the head dong thing is just unsunburnable horn and self-regulates its own temperature, plus it’s less prone to being blown off by the wind.

    If the head dong thing needs to keep cool then picture 3 is the way to go.



  • Airships face three main problems, AIUI:

    1. They’re slow (100km/h to airllanes’ 600km/h), which means their flights are ~6x as long and thus their staffing costs are 6x as much.
    2. Airships still have trouble adjusting their buoyancy - if they pick up/drop off cargo, they become heavier/lighter and start to drop/lift up. That causes a bunch of problems.
    3. Weather screws them - as you can imagine, they catch a lot of wind with their sideward profile. And by definition they’re lighter than air, which means they get knocked off course. Water ships don’t have this problem because they’re heavy as hell and literally made of steel, and of course because jet streams don’t reach sea-level. The end result is that airships tend to fair-weather flights by necessity.

    #2 can be mitigated and in the future might be solved, and #1 might become irrelevant if fuel costs get high and a niche for airships appears. #3 is a killer for reliability and safety both, though - you preemptively avoid storms by just delaying the flight until the weather prediction turns in your favour, which might take weeks. It just can’t handle a schedule, because putting an airship into a storm is too risky. And if time isn’t important then you can just put stuff on the cargo ship and then a train.